At every stage of life, people make decisions that profoundly influence the lives of the people they will become — and when they finally become those people, they aren’t always thrilled about it. Young adults pay to remove the tattoos that teenagers paid to get, middle-aged adults rush to divorce the people whom young adults rushed to marry, and older adults visit health spas to lose what middle-aged adults visited restaurants to gain. Why do people so often make decisions that their future selves regret?
Multiple studies by Jordi Quoidbach, Daniel T. Gilbert, and Timothy D. Wilson attempted to answer the question they posed in the 2013 Science article quoted above. Over 19,000 people participated.
They concluded that people from 18 to 68 years of age underestimated how much they would change in the next ten years. Their traits, values, preferences for food and music, partners, and career choices all displayed vulnerability to these predictive mistakes.
The authors called this tendency The End of History Illusion.
The time comes when we believe we are, more or less, a finished product. Our history of significant personality change has ended, so we think.
We characterize ourselves as mature, self-aware, wise to the world’s ways, and if not fully developed, pretty close.
We do not expect a noteworthy metamorphosis within our psyche despite the obvious transformation of our bodies. For example, most of us express unhappiness upon receiving a new driver’s license photo, thinking it is the most unflattering picture ever. That is until the license expires, and we get the current close-up only to realize the earlier one was attractive by comparison!
In other words, we recognize the unappealing modifications in our physical state. Nonetheless, their implications for the future internal version of ourselves don’t occur to us.
Our outsides get outsized attention. Some people do their best to prevent, minimize, or disguise the bodily decline before or after it happens. Health foods, diets, exercise, botox, cosmetic surgery, comb-overs, hair transplants, wigs, Viagra, etc.
Without expecting significant alterations of the self inside our heads, we give little consideration to that part of our future. Decisions impacting the time ahead are determined with confidence. Thinking about an older self who is a near duplicate of our present version in his character, likes, and dislikes allows us to rest easy. As Mad Magazine’s Alfred E. Neuman used to say, “What, me worry?”
The authors of the Sciencearticle aren’t certain why we operate this way. One possibility is that since we believe our personalities are well-developed, change might be threatening. Most adults like themselves as they are, bolstering their personal security.
A second explanation involves the difference between recognizing past changes and imaginatively envisioning times to come. The latter is harder to do. Because our future selves are unimaginable, we may confuse the difficulty of conjuring alterations with believing they won’t happen.
The psychological defense of denial might help us understand the End of History phenomenon, as well. Telescoping ourselves into becoming not just older and different but less able or close to life’s end is unlikely to produce a smile.
As noted, physical signs can sometimes be camouflaged. The “out of sight, out of mind” form of denial assists more than a few to live with less distress.
The dilemma and the opportunity we are left with is this:
Rather than conceiving ourselves as near the end of the change process, we can think of our being as an endless work in progress. Acceptance of this encouraging news allows us to improve and fulfill who we are.
We can learn how to live better, enjoy and repair the world as needed, benefit from more self-knowledge, and grow wiser and happier.
Our job is to look backward and forward as we reach within to unfold, open, and refine the best of our God-given talents to become what is possible for us. Ever creating, revising, and recreating.
In a coming post, I will offer suggestions on how this might be done.
Caro Dottor Stein,
The price I payed all my life through to remain the little girl you see on the picture, vulnerable yet full of joy, dreams, curiosity, love, creativity (as professional musician), curiosity and a sort of innocence, this price was high, and still is.
My trust still remains unalterable, and God knows what I’m passing through in this period: my my father’s long illness and recent death — I’m now orphan — a lover I thought The one between one million, a rare human being full of grace — o disillusion, o profound sadness! — too many professional humiliations…
O Lord, why, o why?
Now I will open my piano and play a piece by Johann Sebastian Bach, and ask for consolation and embrace, and cry for Joy.
I will walk into the forests around my mountain hut and surely cry.
But out of gratitude to be alive, even if my soul bleeds…
Grazie di cuore per le Sue parole di consolazione, dottor Stein!
I am sure you’ve read the Hamlet quotation, “Oh Gertrude, Gertrude. When sorrows come, they come not single spies but in battalions.” I feel for you, Micaela and I am happy to provide some small consolation in my writing here. I hope Bach, will provide joy before long. You have a strong spirit. Friends will help and I will think of you.
As strange as it may sound, caro dottor Stein, you are one of those friends for me, even if we didn’t meet, exactly as Dostoïevsky, Goya, Bach, Ingmar Bergman, Shakespeare, Mozart, Rembrandt, Rabbi Nachman of Breslau, and many many others are my friends among my “real” friends!
Thank you…thank you…thank you. Another treasure of a post and the reminder here: “Our job is to look backward and forward as we reach within to unfold, open, and refine..” truly speaks to me. I look forward to what you share next. Further enlightenment on the way! 💕
Thanks, Vicki. Constant reinvention is necessary since neither our bodies nor the world stand still. When we retreat from life to stay safe, the best of ourselves is lost. From what I can tell, you don’t retreat. Brava!
This is so fascinating, Dr. Stein. I’m puzzled by this sentence, “They concluded that people from 18 to 68 years of age underestimated how much they would change in the next ten years.” What happens beyond 68? I suspect the authors bounded it like that because they didn’t study people older than that?
But your conclusion is so good “Rather than conceiving ourselves as near the end of the change process, we can think of our being as an endless work in progress. Acceptance of this encouraging news allows us to improve and fulfill who we are.”
Such a hopeful message that we can continue to grow. And not just around the middle. I’m looking forward to the next installment!
You are correct, Wynne. They didn’t include older subjects. I suspect the assumption was that the same process would be going on, if perhaps somewhat reduced. I am glad you find the topic of interest. Thanks.
Yet another thought-provoking post, Dr. Stein! Without a doubt our outward physical metamorphosis does get more attention than our internal version of ourselves. We can’t miss it. It stares us in the face every time we look in the mirror. We also witness the physical transformation of those around us. And it’s not pretty 🙂
On the other hand, I also observed that people changed their behavior and personality as they aged. Some for better. Some for worse. As a child, I prayed that my father would become a kinder person with time, and indeed he did after my mother left. I understood then that I, too, would change as I became older and learned more about the world around me.
Over time, I’ve found that the ups and downs of life present us with opportunities of inner growth of the good kind. I’ve discovered, too, that while our physical bodies break down and even fail us, our inner being never cease growing. It is, as you say, “an endless work in progress.” It’s up to us to remain open to all possibilities for growth.
Thank you, Rosaliene, not least for the last line. I think you are more aware than most, at the expense of a challenging life. It should be said that the researchers were focused on the tendency of us not to think we will change much. Their paper observes that we are better at recognizing the extent of change after it has happened, despite our failure to expect it. And, of course, most of us have no trouble seeing changes in others. Thank you again.
“A second explanation involves the difference between recognizing past changes and imaginatively envisioning times to come. The latter is harder to do. Because our future selves are unimaginable, we may confuse the difficulty of conjuring alterations with believing they won’t happen.”
Years ago I realized it was much easier for me if I accepted I was a “work in progress”, so that I didn’t try to beat myself up over past decisions. We can only move forward in our lives.
However, now I have the pleasure of helping my grandkids form their futures and help them to figure out who they will become. Mt 16 year old grandson made a life altering decision to switch from getting great grades to get accepted into an aeronautics engineering program to choosing to take an HVAC internship in High School, to get certified in the field. He feels he will stay on this path now for his life, and I remind him not to close any doors at his age, for it wasn’t too long ago he made this decision. I asked him if he could be sure he wouldn’t make another big decision in a couple of years, so keeping his grades up and learning the subject matter might be important. He has all the solid assurance of an adolescent, and thankfully he heard me.
We’re all kind of like that in different ways. We cannot imagine the choices our future selves will make and we get set into thinking that our most recent decisions are the best and will remain in our lives forever.
Yes, and the certainty of some late teens and young adults can be breathtaking. That he heard you is impressive. I imagine this relationship will benefit both of you. Good luck to him!
Caro Dottor Stein,
The price I payed all my life through to remain the little girl you see on the picture, vulnerable yet full of joy, dreams, curiosity, love, creativity (as professional musician), curiosity and a sort of innocence, this price was high, and still is.
My trust still remains unalterable, and God knows what I’m passing through in this period: my my father’s long illness and recent death — I’m now orphan — a lover I thought The one between one million, a rare human being full of grace — o disillusion, o profound sadness! — too many professional humiliations…
O Lord, why, o why?
Now I will open my piano and play a piece by Johann Sebastian Bach, and ask for consolation and embrace, and cry for Joy.
I will walk into the forests around my mountain hut and surely cry.
But out of gratitude to be alive, even if my soul bleeds…
Grazie di cuore per le Sue parole di consolazione, dottor Stein!
I am sure you’ve read the Hamlet quotation, “Oh Gertrude, Gertrude. When sorrows come, they come not single spies but in battalions.” I feel for you, Micaela and I am happy to provide some small consolation in my writing here. I hope Bach, will provide joy before long. You have a strong spirit. Friends will help and I will think of you.
As strange as it may sound, caro dottor Stein, you are one of those friends for me, even if we didn’t meet, exactly as Dostoïevsky, Goya, Bach, Ingmar Bergman, Shakespeare, Mozart, Rembrandt, Rabbi Nachman of Breslau, and many many others are my friends among my “real” friends!
I am pleased and honored, Micaela. Thank you.
Thank you…thank you…thank you. Another treasure of a post and the reminder here: “Our job is to look backward and forward as we reach within to unfold, open, and refine..” truly speaks to me. I look forward to what you share next. Further enlightenment on the way! 💕
Thanks, Vicki. Constant reinvention is necessary since neither our bodies nor the world stand still. When we retreat from life to stay safe, the best of ourselves is lost. From what I can tell, you don’t retreat. Brava!
Aww…thanks for that. It’s nice to have company as we journey forward. Thanks for being one of the companions and guides. 🥰
The pleasure is mine!
This is so fascinating, Dr. Stein. I’m puzzled by this sentence, “They concluded that people from 18 to 68 years of age underestimated how much they would change in the next ten years.” What happens beyond 68? I suspect the authors bounded it like that because they didn’t study people older than that?
But your conclusion is so good “Rather than conceiving ourselves as near the end of the change process, we can think of our being as an endless work in progress. Acceptance of this encouraging news allows us to improve and fulfill who we are.”
Such a hopeful message that we can continue to grow. And not just around the middle. I’m looking forward to the next installment!
You are correct, Wynne. They didn’t include older subjects. I suspect the assumption was that the same process would be going on, if perhaps somewhat reduced. I am glad you find the topic of interest. Thanks.
Yet another thought-provoking post, Dr. Stein! Without a doubt our outward physical metamorphosis does get more attention than our internal version of ourselves. We can’t miss it. It stares us in the face every time we look in the mirror. We also witness the physical transformation of those around us. And it’s not pretty 🙂
On the other hand, I also observed that people changed their behavior and personality as they aged. Some for better. Some for worse. As a child, I prayed that my father would become a kinder person with time, and indeed he did after my mother left. I understood then that I, too, would change as I became older and learned more about the world around me.
Over time, I’ve found that the ups and downs of life present us with opportunities of inner growth of the good kind. I’ve discovered, too, that while our physical bodies break down and even fail us, our inner being never cease growing. It is, as you say, “an endless work in progress.” It’s up to us to remain open to all possibilities for growth.
Blessings, dear Mentor <3
Thank you, Rosaliene, not least for the last line. I think you are more aware than most, at the expense of a challenging life. It should be said that the researchers were focused on the tendency of us not to think we will change much. Their paper observes that we are better at recognizing the extent of change after it has happened, despite our failure to expect it. And, of course, most of us have no trouble seeing changes in others. Thank you again.
“A second explanation involves the difference between recognizing past changes and imaginatively envisioning times to come. The latter is harder to do. Because our future selves are unimaginable, we may confuse the difficulty of conjuring alterations with believing they won’t happen.”
Years ago I realized it was much easier for me if I accepted I was a “work in progress”, so that I didn’t try to beat myself up over past decisions. We can only move forward in our lives.
However, now I have the pleasure of helping my grandkids form their futures and help them to figure out who they will become. Mt 16 year old grandson made a life altering decision to switch from getting great grades to get accepted into an aeronautics engineering program to choosing to take an HVAC internship in High School, to get certified in the field. He feels he will stay on this path now for his life, and I remind him not to close any doors at his age, for it wasn’t too long ago he made this decision. I asked him if he could be sure he wouldn’t make another big decision in a couple of years, so keeping his grades up and learning the subject matter might be important. He has all the solid assurance of an adolescent, and thankfully he heard me.
We’re all kind of like that in different ways. We cannot imagine the choices our future selves will make and we get set into thinking that our most recent decisions are the best and will remain in our lives forever.
Yes, and the certainty of some late teens and young adults can be breathtaking. That he heard you is impressive. I imagine this relationship will benefit both of you. Good luck to him!